For some reason, West Coast teams don’t usually fare very well when they get sent to the eastern time zone, but that hasn’t been the case for Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams.
With the Rams headed to the eastern time zone this week to face the Buccaneers, it’s worth noting that McVay has a pretty amazing streak going. Since he was hired in 2017, the Rams have played six regular season games in the eastern time zone against NFC teams and in those six games, they’ve gone 6-0 straight-up and 6-0 against the spread (ATS). The most impressive part of the streak might be the fact that the Rams have averaged 35.8 points per game in those wins. They’ve also won those six games by an average of 19.3 points. Basically, the Rams haven’t just been winning, they’ve been blowing their opponents out.
Despite that success, the Rams have actually opened as an 3.5-point underdog this week for their game in Tampa Bay. In other point spreads for Week 11, the Packers have opened as an underdog for just the third time this year. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, the Packers are 5-1 both straight-up and ATS as an underdog, including 2-0 both straight-up and ATS this year.
Green Bay is a 1.5-point ‘dog against the Colts, marking just the fourth time in the past seven years — and first time under Matt LaFleur — that the Packers have been an underdog against an AFC team.
With that in mind, let’s check out the rest of the opening point spreads for Week 11.
NFL Week 11 early odds
(All lines from William Hill Sportsbook unless noted, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Opening line: Seahawks -3.5
If there’s one team you want to bet on when they’re an underdog, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. Since the start of last season, the Cardinals are 12-4-2 ATS as an underdog. Speaking of being the underdog, this game will mark the ninth straight time that the Seahawks have been favored over the Cardinals, which is good news for the Cards, because they’ve fared well as the underdog. In the previous eight games against Seattle, the Cards have gone 6-1-1 ATS (4-5 straight-up), including a wild 37-34 win in Week 5 in a game where the Seahawks were favored by 3.5. One reason to like the Seahawks though is that they’re 18-3 straight-up in home primetime games since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012 (15-6 ATS).
Opening line: Browns -3
The Browns are favored in this game, but maybe they shouldn’t be and that’s because they tend to struggle against NFC teams. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Browns are just 4-14 straight-up against teams from the NFC. That being said, the Browns are 7-1 straight-up in the past eight games where they were favored by three points or more (4-3-1 ATS). As for the Eagles, they’re winless in their past five games against AFC teams (0-4-1) and they’ve gone 1-4 in those games (They’re 0-2-1 straight-up against the AFC North this year).
Opening line: Saints -7
Although the Saints have dominated this rivalry over the past two years with four wins in their past five games against the Falcons, Atlanta’s lone victory came last year in a game where New Orleans was favored by 14 points. The Saints have won six straight games where they were favored by seven or more, but they’re just 3-3 ATS in those games. On the Falcons’ end, they’re actually one road team you might want to think about betting on. In their past eight games away from Atlanta, the Falcons are 6-2 straight-up and 7-1 ATS.
Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington (2-7)
Opening line: Pick’em
If there’s one team you probably don’t want to bet on in a road game, it’s the Bengals, who are winless in their last 18 games away from Cincinnati (0-17-1 straight-up). The Bengals are also just 3-9-1 straight-up against NFC teams since the start of the 2017 season. As for Washington, they’re actually not much better, going 3-10 in that same span against AFC teams. Washington is also 3-12 straight-up in its past 15 homes games.
Opening line: Panthers -3
The Lions have actually been pretty good on the road this year, going 3-1 both straight-up and ATS. That being said, the Lions haven’t been a great team to bet on recently as they’re 5-14-1 in their past 20 games. As for the Panthers, they’re on a five-game losing streak and they’ve gone 2-3 ATS during the streak.
Opening line: Steelers -10
If there’s one team you want to stay far away from right now, it’s probably the Jaguars. Not only have they lost eight straight games, but they’re also 2-5 ATS in their past seven games. That being said, they did cover as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday against the Packers. As for the Steelers, although they’re tied for the best ATS mark in the NFL this season (7-2), they’re 0-7 ATS In the past seven games where they were favored by 10 points or more (6-1 straight-up).
Opening line: Ravens -7
If there’s one spot where you might want to bet against the Ravens, it’s when they’re playing at home. Since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter, the Ravens are just 6-11 ATS in home games. They’re also 2-5 ATS in the past seven games where they were favored by seven or more points. On the Titans’ end, they’re a respectable 4-4 straight-up in the past eight games where they’ve been an underdog. On the other hand, they’re 0-3 in their past three road games and 4-8 ATS In their past 12. The last time these two teams met came in the 2019 playoffs when the Titans covered as a 10-point underdog in an upset win.
Opening line: Texans -2.5
The Texans have been one of the worst teams to bet on in the NFL recently. In their past 10 games, the Texans have gone an atrocious 2-8 ATS (2-8 straight-up). The Texans are also 0-6 ATS in their past six games as an underdog, which we’re only noting, because there’s a chance this point spread could start swinging in New England’s direction. As for the Patriots, they actually tend to struggle against AFC South teams, going 1-3 both straight-up and ATS in their past four games against the division.
Opening line: Dolphins -2.5
The Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL against the spread as they’ve covered in six straight games. They’re also 7-2 ATS on the season, which is tied with the Steelers for the best mark in the NFL. As for the Broncos, all three of their wins this season came in a game where they were an underdog.
Opening line: Chargers -9.5
In their past 15 games as an underdog of seven or more points, the Jets have gone 4-10-1 ATS and 1-14 straight-up. Basically when they’re a big underdog, they don’t pull off upsets and they rarely cover the spread. The Jets are also 2-7 ATS on the season, which is tied with the Texans for the second-worst mark in the NFL. As for the Chargers, it’s almost always a risk to bet on them when they’re playing at home. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Chargers are 3-10-1 ATS in home games (6-8 straight-up). The Chargers have also lost three straight while going 0-3 ATS in those games.
Packers (7-2) at Colts (6-3)
Opening line: Colts -1.5
The Packers probably aren’t going to mind the fact that they’re an underdog here and that’s because they’ve actually been thriving as a ‘dog. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, the Packers are 5-1 both straight-up and ATS as an underdog. The Packers are also 9-2 straight-up and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games against teams from the AFC. As for the Colts, they’re 9-2-1 ATS in their past 12 games against NFC teams and they’ve won four straight against NFC teams.
Opening line: Vikings -9.5
The Vikings have surprisingly been one of the safest bets in the NFL over the past few weeks, going 5-1 ATS in their past six games (That could improve to 6-1 if they cover against the Bears on Monday). Also, since Mike Zimmer was hired in 2015, the Vikings have gone 11-1 straight-up and 7-4-1 ATS in games where they were favored by seven or more points. On the Cowboys’ end, they’re 1-8 ATS on the season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. That being said, their only cover came in a game where they were a 14.5-point underdog. If you’re looking for a coach to bet against, Mike McCarthy is your man. The Cowboys coach is 1-10-1 ATS in his past 12 games as a coach dating back to his time in Green Bay.
Opening line: Chiefs -7
Welcome to the one week of the season where Andy Reid is pretty much a lock to win: The week where he’s coming off a bye. Reid has been nearly unbeatable off a bye in his career (18-3 straight-up), so it might not be too smart to bet on the Raiders to pull off the upset, even if they did beat the Chiefs earlier this season. Also, let’s not forget that Reid coaching against an AFC West team is almost unfair at this point. Since November 2015, the Chiefs have gone 29-3 straight up against divisional opponents and 22-9-1 ATS. That total includes going 10-2 straight-up against the Raiders the past 12 times these two teams have played (8-4 ATS). However, one of those two wins by the Raiders did come back in Week 5 when Las Vegas pulled off a 40-32 upset as an 11-point underdog.
One reason to like the Raiders though is because home underdogs in divisional games are 13-3 ATS this season (The Bears could help or hurt that number on Monday as they’re a divisional home underdog against the Vikings).
Rams (6-3) at Buccaneers (7-3), Monday
Opening line: Buccaneers -3.5
In the past seven games where the Rams have been an underdog, they’ve gone 1-6 straight-up and 3-4 ATS. However, there is one reason to like the Rams and that’s the fact that Sean McVay has NEVER lost a regular season game to an NFC team in the eastern time zone. Since he was hired in 2017, the Rams have gone 6-0 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Buccaneers, Tom Brady is 10-3 straight up and 8-4-1 ATS in Monday games since the start of the 2010 season.