With four losses in a row, the 2019 NFL season is already starting to spiral out of control for the Browns, and although the bandwagon is losing fans fast, it appears that oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren’t quite ready to give up on on Cleveland just yet.
In the early odds for Week 10, the Browns have opened as a 2.5-point home favorite over the Bills, and no, that is not a typo: The 2-6 Browns are actually favored this week to beat the 6-2 Bills. Of course, the fact that the Browns are favored might actually be a good thing for the Bills, and that’s because Cleveland has been one of the worst teams this year when it comes to covering the spread.
Through nine weeks, the Browns are 2-6 against the spread (ATS), which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. On the other hand, the Bills are 5-3 ATS, which is tied for the third best mark. Although it’s rare, you do sometimes see a team under .500 favored to beat a team over .500. As a matter off act, it happened to the 2-3 Browns back in Week 6 when they were favored by 1-point to beat the 4-1 Seahawks (The Seahawks ended up winning the game 32-28).
A wild Week 9 is almost in the books and there’s a lot to go over. Fortunately, Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down on the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe right here to get daily NFL news fired into your eardrums.
The biggest record discrepancy of the past 40 years — in a game where neither team was resting its starters — came in 2015 when the 3-7 Cowboys were favored to beat the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving (The Panthers ended up winning that game 33-14).
With that in mind, let’s get to the odds, ends and trends for Week 10, where our most notable trend belongs to Rams coach Sean McVay, who has never lost a regular season game to an AFC team.
By the way, if you’re thinking about laying any money on this week’s slate of games, you need to make sure to check out the statistical model over at SportsLine. This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 10 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. To check out the picks for Week 10, make sure to click here.
Alright, let’s get to the odds.
NFL Week 10 early odds
(All lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook via VegasInsider.com, all games on Sunday unless noted)
Note: All betting trends reflect regular season games only
Opening line: Raiders, -1
If there’s one team the Chargers have dominated over the past two years, it’s the Raiders. Not only have the Chargers won four straight games against the Raiders, but they’ve covered in all four of those games. If you go even further back, the Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games against Oakland. The Chargers have also covered in four straight trips to Oakland dating back to 2015. However, the Raiders have been on a roll at home, going 6-1 ATS in their past seven games in Oakland, including Sunday’s win over the Lions.
Bills (6-2) at Browns (2-6)
Opening line: Browns, -2.5
If you love losing money, one of the easiest ways to do it is to bet on the Browns. Not only are the Browns 2-6 ATS this season, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL, but they’re also 1-3 straight-up and 0-4 ATS in their past four home games. The Browns are also just 2-9 ATS the past 11 times they’ve been a home favorite (4-7 straight-up). As for the Bills, they’ve gone 6-1 ATS in the past seven games where they’ve been an underdog (4-3 straight-up).
Rams (5-3) at Steelers (4-4)
Opening line: Rams, -3.5
Rams coach Sean McVay has two of the greatest streaks in sports going, and he’ll be putting them both on the line in this game. For one, McVay has never lost a regular season game to an AFC team. Since hiring McVay in 2017, the Rams are 10-0 straight-up and 7-2-1 ATS against AFC teams. McVay has also never lost a regular season game in the Eastern Time Zone, going 6-0 both straight-up and ATS. As for the Steelers, although they’ve lost three straight games to NFC teams, they are 5-1 ATS in their past six games against the NFC. This game will mark just the fifth time in the Mike Tomlin era that the Steelers have been an underdog of three or more points at home. In the four previous games, the Steelers went 3-1 ATS (2-2 straight-up).
Lions (3-4-1) at Bears (3-5)
Opening line: Bears, -3
The Bears don’t always beat the Lions, but they do seem to cover whenever these two teams play. In the past nine meetings between these division rivals, the Bears have gone 5-2-2 ATS, and they’ve also won two in a row straight-up. The Bears are also 17-7-1 ATS in their past 25 home games, although they’re just 1-3 ATS at home in 2019. As for the Lions, they’ve actually done a good job of covering in road games against NFC teams. In their past 15 games that fit that scenario, they’ve gone 10-4-1 ATS.
Opening line: Ravens, -10
The Bengals have struggled in divisional games, losing seven straight, but no matter how bad they are, they somehow seem to find a way to cover against the Ravens. In their past 12 meetings against Baltimore, the Bengals have gone 8-4 ATS. The Bengals have also covered in four straight games against Baltimore, which includes a cover in Week 6 when they lost 23-17 as a 10.5-point underdog. One thing to keep in mind with the Bengals is that Andy Dalton won’t be playing in this game, and that’s because he’s been benched for Ryan Finley, who will be making his first career start. As for the Ravens, they’re just 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games where they’ve been favored by 10 or more points (15-1 straight-up).
Opening line: Chiefs, -3.5
Home-field advantage hasn’t been much of an advantage for the Titans. In their past six home games, they’ve gone just 1-4-1 ATS and the numbers are actually a lot uglier than that when you look at their record as a home underdog. In the past 25 games where that’s happened, the Titans have gone 4-21 straight-up and a slightly better 8-14-3 ATS. As for the Chiefs, one thing you’ll definitely want to monitor is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is playing. The Chiefs quarterback has missed two straight games, and if he can’t return, Matt Moore will be Kansas City’s starting quarterback for the third straight week. The Chiefs are 15-5 straight-up in the past 20 games where they’ve been a road favorite (13-7 ATS).
Opening line: Saints, -13.5
If there’s one team you should stay away from this week, it’s probably the Falcons. For one, they’re just 2-6 ATS this season, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. Also, the Falcons have lost three straight to the Saints and they haven’t covered in any of those games. The Falcons have also been embarrassingly bad on the road over the past three years, going 4-16 ATS in road games since 2017 (8-12 straight-up). As for the Saints, they’re 17-2 straight-up in their past 19 homes games (12-7 ATS). The Saints have also covered the last three times they’ve been favored by double digits.
Opening line: Pick’em
Over the past three years, playing against an NFC team has usually turned into a disaster for the Jets. Since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Jets are just 3-11 straight-up against the NFC (5-9 ATS). The Jets are also 2-6 ATS overall for the 2019 season, which is tied for the worst mark in the NFL. As for the Giants, they’re just 1-6 straight-up in their past seven games against AFC teams. They also seem to have home-field advantage over the Jets no matter who the home team is in this series. The Giants haven’t lost as the “road” team in a game against the Jets since 1988.
Cardinals (3-5-1) at Buccaneers (2-6)
Opening line: Buccaneers, -6
It’s the Bruce Arians bowl with Arians’ old team going up against his new team. The bad news for Arians’ new team is that this game is being played in Tampa, where the Bucs can’t seem to win. Not only have they lost five straight homes games dating back to last year, but they’re 1-4 ATS in those games. As for the Cardinals, they’re 4-1 ATS in their past five road games. They’re also 6-3 ATS on the season, which is tied for the second best mark in the NFL. If you’re thinking about betting on the Cardinals to win, you’ll probably want to know that they’re 1-11 straight-up in their past 12 games where they were an underdog of six or more points.
Opening line: NO LINE
This is the only game of Week 10 that wasn’t given an opening point spread and that’s because oddsmakers aren’t sure if Jacoby Brissett is going to play. Brissett injured his knee during the first half of Indy’s loss to the Steelers on Sunday and didn’t return to the game. The odd thing about this game is that the Dolphins — THE DOLPHINS — have slowly turned into one of the safest bets in football. Including Sunday’s in over the Jets, the Dolphins have now covered in four straight games. Of course, this is the Dolphins we’re talking about and they’re just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games. As for the Colts, they’re 9-1 straight-up in their past 10 homes games (5-4-1 ATS).
Panthers (5-3) at Packers (7-2)
Opening line: Packers, -5
Over the past few years, November has been a disastrous month for the Packers at home. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Packers have gone 1-5 both straight-up and ATS at home during the month of November. As for the Panthers, they’re 4-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past five road games. However, that one loss was an ugly one: Back in Week 8, the 49ers beat them 51-13. The five-point spread is almost a good thing for the Panthers and that’s because they’ve covered four straight games when they were an underdog of five or more points (3-1 straight-up).
Vikings (6-3) at Cowboys (4-3)
Opening line: Cowboys, -3
As you’ve probably heard at some point over the past few years, Kirk Cousins always seems to lose whenever he plays against a team with a winning record, and the Cowboys will have a winning record heading into Week 10 as long as they beat the Giants on Monday. Including Sunday’s loss to Kansas City, Cousins is now 6-28 in his career against teams with a winning record. The bad news for Cousins is that he now has to face a Cowboys team that’s nearly unbeatable at home. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, the Cowboys are 10-2 straight-up at home (8-4 ATS). Also, the Vikings are rarely a safe bet when they’re a road underdog, going 2-9 straight-up and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it’s happened. One reason you might want to think about betting the Vikings though is that they’re 8-1 ATS in their past nine game against the Cowboys (5-4 straight-up).
Seahawks (7-2) at 49ers (8-0)
Opening line: 49ers, -6.5
The 49ers playing at home on a Monday night has been one of the greatest home-field advantages in NFL history. Over the past 30 years, the 49ers are 21-5 straight-up in Monday home games and 18-7-1 ATS. Of course, if anyone can end that streak, it’s Russell Wilson, who has been nearly unbeatable in road primetime games during his career. Since 2013, the Seahawks are 8-2-1 straight-up in road primetime games and 7-3-1 ATS. The Seahawks have also owned the 49ers over the past few years, going 9-1 against San Francisco over the past 10 games. This game will mark just the sixth time in Wilson’s career that the Seahawks have been an underdog of six or more point. In the five previous games, the Seahawks have gone 5-0 ATS (2-3 straight-up).